Watcher of Weasels:

Are You People Nuts?

I don't understand how so many people can make the ridiculous argument that Bin Laden wants to see Bush re-elected just to "create" more terrorists...  I've even heard otherwise intelligent people like Neil Cavuto make this silly argument.  I don't get it.  If you really believe that Bin Laden wants to use Bush to further his recruitment, which do you think would make for more effective recruiting slogans: claiming success in getting your greatest enemy thrown out of office (and ultimately Iraq) in disgrace, or having someone else to blame for your own failures?  The only semi-plausible argument to make for Bin Laden not wanting Bush to lose, is that he might not want to see Bush getting blamed for the economic damage that Al-Qaeda wants to take credit for, but I haven't heard anyone trying to make that case...  not that anyone should bother to try, since 5.4% unemployment is hardly the next Great Depression.

Meanwhile, kooks like Oliver Willis are trying to claim that Republicans are overjoyed to see that Bin Laden is still alive...  we aren't happy that he's alive Oliver, we are just amused that the first time he has bothered to show his face in forever, he ends up sounding just like you!  How can that do anything but help Bush?  Sure, some people might react to seeing Bin Laden's face on the news by just sitting there stewing in their own irrational hatred for Bush...  but those who actually bother to pay attention to the change in Bin Laden's rhetoric will either be very troubled that he suddenly started to parrot Michael Moore's nutty talking points, or will wonder why Bin Laden suddenly started to make so much sense.

And the parts of the tape that Al-Jazeera chose not to air make Bin Laden look even more pathetic...  he was apparently complaining about how much damage has been done to the Al-Qaeda network, and about his inability to prevent the elections in Afghanistan.  I don't imagine that he is very happy about the upcoming elections in Iraq either, but I don't think that was brought up.  There was plenty of "war for oil" stuff though, which Al-Jazeera at least mentioned briefly in a rather incoherent summary at the end of the broadcast...  even if they didn't bother to show it directly.

It's hard to blame cranks like Walter Cronkite for suggesting (jokingly or not) conspiracy theories about Bin Laden being put up to this by Karl Rove...  because it provides so many obvious opportunites for Bush to attack Kerry.  Just put up an ad that intermixes Bin Laden and John Kerry regurgitating the same talking points: Bush stole the election, Bush didn't leave that Florida classroom to travel back in time and singlehandedly prevent 9/11, Iraq is all about Halliburton, Bush lied about WMD, Bush's tax cuts were exclusively for the rich, Bush is too close to the Saudis, and so on.  Then add some soft music, file footage of George W. Bush, and his voiceover approving the message at the end.

Update: MEMRI reports that part of the Bin Laden tape has been misinterpreted by the media...  here is the segment in question, which some have falsely tried to claim as proof that Bin Laden saw no difference between the two candidates: “Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or Al-Qaeda.  Your security is in your hands.  Each state that doesn't mess with our security has automatically secured their security.”  However, MEMRI says that Bin Laden used the term "ay wilaya" here, which specifically translates to mean state (as in a US state) rather than a nation or a country...  so, in addition to borrowing many of the Democratic talking points, it would seem that Bin Laden is making a threat here meant to directly influence the outcome of the electoral vote itself.  He certainly appears to be saying that "blue" states will be off-limits for the time being, but "red" states will not be safe...  sort of gives a whole new meaning to the Vote or Die campaign, huh?

Update: I'm not sure how accurate the translation really is, but Al-Jazzera has finally posted what it claims to be the full transcript of the tape...  here is a bit that precedes the part I quoted in the first update: “And know that, ‘It is better to return to the truth than persist in error.’  And that the wise man doesn't squander his security, wealth and children for the sake of the liar in the White House.”

Update: Looking over the complete transcript, I'm not seeing the parts that the NY Post described as being in the missing 12 minutes of footage...  I can't find where Bin Laden is complaining about Afghanistan or Al-Qaeda's ability to function. But this transcript is provided by Al-Jazeera, so I'm not sure what to think...  it would be nice to see the complete translation get confirmed somewhere else.