November 02, 2004
My Prediction: Bush 279, Bin Laden 259
After reading the interesting poll analysis over at Power Line, I thought I'd rerun the numbers at Tradesports and see where things stand now. Just over a week ago, the state by state futures were predicting a Bush win with a total of 291 electoral votes... it has shifted downward slightly since then, with Bush now losing in Wisconsin and picking up New Mexico. His lead in Iowa has slipped back into a tie, and the tie in New Hampshire has also slipped away from him entirely. So, now Tradesports is predicting a much slimmer lead for Bush, with him getting a total of 279 electoral votes. Here is an electoral map based on the latest numbers:
Les Jones has an interesting roundup of blogger predictions for election day, and as it turns out, I'm only slightly more optimistic (by one point) than he is in his own prediction... though I couldn't agree more with this dire prediction made by John Hawkins: “George Bush is to terrorism what Ronald Reagan was to Communism: its greatest foe. And if he loses, make no mistake about it, the terrorists will view it as their greatest victory since 9/11. Maybe its impolitic to point that out, but it's true....”
Thou art far too pessimistic. Bush will recieve 296 EV with 53% PV. Mark my words.
Posted by: AlphaPatriot at November 2, 2004 01:55 AMI'm not being pessimistic, I'm being conservative... there's a difference! ;-)
Posted by: Watcher at November 2, 2004 03:03 AMThanks for very interesting article. physical access control btw. I really enjoyed reading all of your posts. garment manufacturer It’s interesting to read ideas, and observations from someone else’s point of view… makes you think more. So please keep up the great work. Greetings. fingerprint scanner
Posted by: ST2010 at October 5, 2007 12:22 PMYou actually have a good point now that I look at it that way. This was article was more about markup than anything. haha I should restrain myself from commenting in the wee hours of the morning and going on my own rant. cnlogistic A yes I do I agree with you. At the end of the day It’s all about mark up. winrelocation It’s what makes the difference.
Posted by: tshuntong at October 7, 2007 04:59 AM|
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